TEA.4.2

$25.00

Dealing with Uncertainty in Long Term Life Care Cost Estimates: Lessons from Environmental Reclamation Projects

McGuire, Chester. 2001. “Dealing with Uncertainty in Long Term Life Care Cost Estimates: Lessons from Environmental Reclamation Projects.”  The Earnings Analyst  4: 37-52.

Description

The purpose of this paper is to introduce life care planners, rehabilitation specialists and forensic economists to certain cost estimating techniques currently being used by construction engineers and environmental remediation specialists. To this end statistical techniques and models have been developed by cost engineers to deal with the various forms of uncertainty they encounter in their work. Part II is a discussion of cost estimating procedures, especially the use of range estimating and other models to handle uncertainty and risk. Part III uses range-estimating techniques with an example of a long-term life care plan. Part IV introduces the use of influence diagrams to evaluate other uncertainties, such as risks of future complications in the cost estimating process. Part V addresses the practicality of these analytical methods in preparing an actual life care plan. Part VI is a summary of the points raised in the paper.

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