TEA: Volume 4 (2001)

TEA.4.0 – 2001. The Earnings Analyst 4: 162pp.

TEA.4.1 – Exploring the Possibility of Worklife Expectancies for Specific Disabilities.  James D. Rodgers.  This paper is a preliminary exploration into the possibility or lack thereof for deriving worklife expectancies for persons with specific disabilities. Such an inquiry seems warranted and a natural next step in view of recent work by Skoog and Toppino (1999). This work criticized the disability worklife expectancy tables produced by Vocational Econometrics and Anthony M. Gamboa, Jr. of Vocational Econometrics, Inc. (VEI) (1998). The next section, Section II, discusses the definition of disability in the CPS and in the SIPP. Section III describes the SIPP data that will be used to compute worklife expectancies. Section IV describes how the SIPP data could be used to construct some “rough and ready” worklife expectancies for various categories of disability. This section also discusses some of the limitations of using these worklife expectancies. Section V offers some concluding remarks.

TEA.4.2 – Dealing with Uncertainty in Long Term Life Care Cost Estimates: Lessons from Environmental Reclamation Projects.  Chester McGuire.  The purpose of this paper is to introduce life care planners, rehabilitation specialists and forensic economists to certain cost estimating techniques currently being used by construction engineers and environmental remediation specialists. To this end statistical techniques and models have been developed by cost engineers to deal with the various forms of uncertainty they encounter in their work. Part II is a discussion of cost estimating procedures, especially the use of range estimating and other models to handle uncertainty and risk. Part III uses range-estimating techniques with an example of a long-term life care plan. Part IV introduces the use of influence diagrams to evaluate other uncertainties, such as risks of future complications in the cost estimating process. Part V addresses the practicality of these analytical methods in preparing an actual life care plan. Part VI is a summary of the points raised in the paper.

TEA.4.3Forensic Economics in the Classroom.  David Toppino, Frank Slesnick, Elizabeth Gunderson, and Robert Male.  This paper begins with an explanation of what is meant by the term “forensic economics” and how as an “applied discipline” it relates to economics as an academic discipline. Once the contextual foundation is established for the practice of forensic economics, the focus of this paper shifts to the teaching of forensic economics courses and the value that such courses can add to an economics curriculum. This review of forensic economics in the classroom will include discussion of complete courses, as well as the use of methodology and principals from forensic economics in courses such as Labor Economics and Law and Economics courses. The final section will summarize the paper and draw some conclusions.

TEA.4.4The Timing of Present Value of Damages: Implications of Footnote 22 in the Pfeifer Decision.  Thomas R. Ireland.    Most forensic economists calculate the present value of damages as of the expected date of trial. In general, past damages are presented without adjustment for interest, while future damages are reduced to present value by discounting for future interest from the date of the trial. In wrongful termination cases, this is mandated in the form of “back pay” and “front pay” calculations, but it is not mandated in cases involving personal injury and wrongful death. While it is not technically controlling for cases other than FELA and Jones Act personal injuries, Jones & Laughlin Steel Corp. v. Pfeifer (1983) is the de facto ruling case on methods to be used in federal personal injury cases. Footnote 22 of the Pfeifer decision lays out a different, but very specific method to be followed when calculating the present value of damages in personal injury actions. This paper discusses the implications of that method, both in terms of accuracy and in terms of the legal resolution of issues of controversy among forensic economists.

TEA.4.5Using TIPS and Non-Indexed Treasury Securities to Project Future Inflation.  Allyn Needham and Shannon Shipp.    What is the best way to derive an expected inflation rate? Forensic economists that include expected inflation in their estimates are faced with this dilemma each time they prepare a report. Many economists use historical data. Thomas Havrilesky has criticized the use of historical data in forensic economic analysis ((Havrilesky 1990, p. 23). Other economists rely on indicators to forecast inflation. Their inflation figures are derived from the variability of certain indicators, like changes in commodity prices, changes in exchange rates, the spread between short term and long-term interest rates, or changes in capacity utilization or unemployment. Stephen Cecchetti, Rita Chu, and Charles Steindel have questioned the reliability of inflation indicators (Cecchetti, Chu, & Steindel 2000, p. 1). If Havrilesky is correct, then the use of historical data is suspect. If Cecchetti, Chu and Steindel are correct, then any one or even a combination of indicator variables is suspect. Where does this leave an economist attempting to estimate future inflation? The Treasury security market may offer a solution.

TEA.4.6Worklife Expectancies for Older Ages.  Hugh Richards.    Worklife expectancies have typically been presented only through age 75. This article deals with worklife expectancies for persons 76 through 85 years of age by sex, education, and race or Hispanic origin. Both increment-decrement and the conventional model estimates are included since each model has its own strengths. This article is an extension of data presented in Life and Worklife Expectancies (Richards 1999) in which tables were truncated at age 75. The worklife expectancies presented in this article are continuations of those tables, derived at the same time using the same methodology and data sources.

TEA.4.7 – Vocational Expert and Forensic Economist: An Examination of Ethics Statements and Codes.  Mary Barros-Bailey.    Ethics! What is it? Are the definitions different for vocational and economics experts? What guidelines are given for resolving some conflicts? These are all questions this paper will explore and discuss.

TEA.4.8How to Write a Paper for a Forensic Damages Journal.  Thomas R. Ireland.    The purpose of this paper is to provide a step by step framework for preparing a submission to journals that publish articles in the area of forensic uses of vocational or economic expertise. This same general framework is applicable to professional journals in other fields of behavioral analysis with minor modification, and will also be useful in the preparation of narrative portions of a forensic expert’s report for litigation. For ease of use, the framework is spelled out as a series of steps that should be followed. Common mistakes are discussed as each step is considered.